Designing a model for institutionalizing sports activities in Iran's leisure time and explaining its future with a scenario writing approach on the horizon of 1420

Document Type : Research Paper


1 PhD student in Sports Management, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Sports Management, Islamic Azad University, Kerman Branch, Kerman, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Physical Education, School of Medicine and Neuroscience Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran



The aim of this study was to design a model for institutionalizing sports activities in Iran's leisure time and to explain its future based on scenario writing in the horizon of 1420. The method used in this research is scenario-based planning, which is designed and implemented in eight steps. The method of data collection in this study is qualitative and using interviews, expert panel and Delphi survey. 17 experts in the field of leisure and sports management with specialized knowledge or practical experience were selected as members of the group participating in the research by snowball. Also, Mikmak software and Scenario Wizard have been used to analyze the data. The findings of this study are presented in two parts. The first part involves identifying and classifying key components, drivers, and related uncertainties. The five drivers of income status, the cost of using sports facilities (club membership and equipment purchase), culture through the media, family and educational system, per capita sports facilities and the development of a comprehensive program for the development of leisure physical activity by managers, are determined in this section. And the relationships of effectiveness and effectiveness between the components are analyzed. The second part identifies and describes possible and consistent scenarios based on related drivers and uncertainties. Managers and trustees of sports in the country are advised to provide the necessary conditions and infrastructure for maximum participation in sports activities.


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